The St. Louis Cardinals Just Won a Game They Definitely Should Have Lost
By: Louis Greubel
March 21st, 2023
Comebacks are kind of a “Cardinals thing,” perhaps the most notable example being their 2011 World Series win (and the entire preceding month of September, for that matter). The Cardinals’ cunning comeback capabilities have even cascaded into full-on meme territory, with online forums like Reddit quipping often about the Cardinals’ “Devil Magic™.”
The most recent sample of this so-called satanic sorcery surfaced on March 19th, 2023, before the regular season even got underway. Most of the Redbirds’ big guns were off playing in the World Baseball Classic—Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Adam Wainwright, and Miles Mikolas for team USA, Lars Nootbaar for Japan, Tommy Edman for Korea, and muscle-man Tyler O’Neill for Canada. This left the spring training efforts in the hands of the Redbird rookies—hands which proved to be both painfully incapable and dramatically competent in the same game.
At one point, the Mets were winning this ballgame 5 to 0. They had it all but won. The worse the odds, though, the more temptation Devil Magic feels to exert its power on the game’s outcome. How did we get there? Let’s take a look.
A Disastrous Cardinals Start
Ok, so the start wasn’t immediately disastrous. As the away team, the Cardinals got first crack at the dish. A Brendan Donovan bunt base hit, a Jordan Walker flyout, a Nolan Gorman strikeout, a Taylor Motter walk, and an Alec Burleson pop-out later, and the Cardinals’ half of the first inning was finished. Then it was the Mets’ turn—and they wasted no time.
Danny Mendick homered off of Dakota Hudson on just the second pitch of the game. Unfortunately for Hudson, that was just the beginning of his troubles. Luis Guillorme doubled in the next at-bat. With a man on second, Hudson actually managed to induce a groundout from the next two batters, Starling Marte and Daniel Vogelbach. Guillorme had advanced to third on Vogelbach’s grounder, but all the Redbirds needed was one more out. They would get it, but not before some additional (and significant) damage by the Mets.
Mark Canha stepped up to the plate and singled, scoring Guillorme. Hudson walked the next batter, Brett Baty—men on first and second. A Mark Vientos single then scored Canha and sent Baty to third—3 to 0 Mets with two men on. Next, DJ Stewart would achieve one of the rarest offensive outcomes in baseball. On Dakota Hudson’s 22nd pitch of the game, Stewart hit a triple past a diving Scott Hurst in right field. DJ would go on to hit for the cycle that game, but in the bottom of the first, a Francisco Alvarez flyout would leave him stranded at third. Mercifully, the Mets’ half of the inning came to an end, but the damage was done: the Cards were down 5 to 0.
All’s Quiet through the 4th
As the game continued, the second and third innings saw no additional scoring from either team. With the exception of a Tres Barrera walk, the Cardinals went quietly in the fourth. In their half of the fourth, the Mets threatened the Redbirds with more runs; Guillorme hit his second double of the game, and Starling Marte sent a hard ground ball over to Taylor Motter at shortstop. Motter managed to knock the ball down, and though he kept Guillorme from advancing to third, he couldn’t make a play, and Marte wound up safe at first.
Down 5 to 0 in the bottom of the fourth with no outs and two men on, the Cardinals were staring down the barrel of certain defeat. In fact, at this point in the game, the Mets’ win probability sat at 96.6%, leaving the reeling Redbirds with just a 3.4% chance of winning the matchup. There was nothing to do but press on, though, and the Cardinals did, actually retiring the next three Mets batters to escape the fourth inning unscathed.
Signs of Life: onto the Top of the 5th
As the top of the fifth inning rolled around, the Cardinals’ struggles continued—at least at first. Right-fielder Scott Hurst grounded out, followed by a Brendan Donovan flyout. It looked as though St. Louis would go quietly, but Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman had other plans. Baseball fans are familiar with the phrase “a bloop and a blast,” and that’s exactly what happened next. Jordan Walker provided the bloop, a lazy fly ball into center that just avoided the glove of a charging Mark Canha. Nolan Gorman then provided the blast, a two-run home run that snuck just past the right field foul pole.
Win probability is a fun and interesting statistic, especially because it can be measured on a play-by-play basis. Games like this one tend to demonstrate that viewers should approach the stat with relative caution (especially when Devil Magic is involved), but—with that disclaimer out of the way—Gorman’s two RBI homer accounted for a 7% swing in win probability the Cardinals’ way, increasing their likelihood of victory from just 4.7% to 11.7%. The fifth ended shortly after with the Cardinals finally on the board.
Two Steps Forward, Two Steps Back
The sixth passed with no scoring, and the Cardinals started the top of the seventh with a Scott Hurst strikeout. Then Juniel Querecuto walked, Jordan Walker struck out, and Kramer Robertson walked. With two out and two on, Taylor Motter hit a soft shot toward second base that infielder José Peraza couldn’t handle. The bases were loaded for Alec Burleson, who singled to left to score Querecuto and Robertson. Just like that, it was 5 to 4, and we had ourselves a ballgame.
After an Andrew Knizner groundout, it was the Mets’ turn at the plate, and with just one swing of the bat, they were about to undo all the seventh-inning work the Cardinals had done. Mark Canha lined out to Motter, and Cards pitcher Chris Stratton managed to strike Brett Baty out. At the moment, the Cardinals’ win probability sat at a manageable 22.7%. But after a José Peraza single (atoning for his error in the seventh), DJ Steward homered to right, putting a 16.4% dent in the Cardinals’ odds, leaving them with just a 6.3% chance to win. Mets’ catcher Michael Pérez would strike out to end any additional threat, but the damage was done, and the Cards were now down by 3.
It’s a Good Day to Play Two Inning to Score Four
It was the top of the eighth, and the Redbirds were running out of time. Luckily, the word “quit” is not built into the St. Louis Cardinals’ DNA, and Devil Magic was about to do its thing.
Both Pedro Pagés and Oscar Mercado managed hits that deflected off the gloves of Mets infielders, and the pair wound up on second and third. After a harmless Scott Hurst groundout, Juniel Querecuto singled to score Pagés and move Mercado to third—7 to 5 Mets. Justin Toerner hit a ground-rule double to score Mercado and move Quercuto to third—7 to 6 Mets. This double provided a sharp 23.7% increase in win probability for the Cardinals; they now had a 46.3% chance of winning the ballgame, their highest since the game was scoreless back in the first inning.
Kramer Robertson walked, the bases were now loaded, and to the dismay of the Mets, the Cardinals’ Noah Mendlinger put a ball in play that third baseman Justin Guerrera attempted to throw to second, but actually threw into center field. Querecuto and Toerner came around to score, and Kramer Robertson made it safely to third base. In the biggest shift in win probability of the day, a 34.3% swing, the Redbirds were now winning 8 to 7 and had an 81.9% chance of victory.
Bring it on Home
In the bottom of the eighth, the only Mets threat consisted of a Jesus Baez walk; Brad Malm struck out, Rowdy Jordan popped out, and Drake Osborn grounded out. The Cardinals were quiet in the top of the ninth, but it didn’t matter; the Mets would go 1-2-3 in the bottom of the ninth inning with Cardinal pitcher Dalton Roach striking out José Peraza to close out a (quite literally) ridiculously improbable Cardinal winner.
A Brief Postmortem or: What the Hell Are We Supposed to Think about the Results of This Game?
If I tell you there’s a 96.6% chance something’s going to happen, you can damn well bet that that thing is probably going to happen. Baseball is a different animal, though, and, as Yogi Berra (may or may not have) said, “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.” When José Peraza struck out for the Mets in that March 19th, 2023 spring training game, the Cardinals chances of winning the ballgame had officially increased to 100%. And despite the fact that that number had been as low as 3.4%, you never know for sure how a ballgame is going to go—especially when Devil Magic is out there on the diamond.
Louis Greubel
Louis is an avid, lifelong St. Louis sports fan. He has a bachelor’s degree in English from St. Louis University, and he’s worked as a professional writer for five years. Louis joined his brother Andy Greubel and their good friend Brendan Phillips in early 2023 to help make Red Jacket Club the premier hub for St. Louis Cardinals podcasts, videos, and blog content. In his spare time, he listens to Billy Joel, Elton John, and the Beatles, and hangs out with his fiancée—his favorite person in the world.
In lieu of connecting with Louis on social media, be sure to follow @red_jacketclub on YouTube, Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok. He’ll see you there.
